| 15 November 2009
No way I would have gotten this question correct in August:
By mid-November there will be a potential for TEN bowl eligible teams, how many of these teams have a better than .500 conference winning percentage?
When we made our pre-season predictions (which are very close to what you are seeing on the field), there was no way to predict three teams in the Top Ten and no one else in the Top 25 ... that is simply unfathomable, but is where the SEC is at.
This week's Top 25 is beyond the jump ...
USA Today Top 25 Coaches' Poll - Nov. 15, 2009
There they are: Florida, Alabama, and LSU all in the Top 10 with no one else to be found.
Several SEC teams have had their chances inside of the Top 25 this season, only to lose the following week and drop back out. Just ask Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina what that one feels like. Georgia was ranked in the pre-season and has struggled.
The SEC has nine current bowl eligible teams with potential of a tenth ... but look at the abysmal conference records. Florida is 8-0 in the SEC East and once you look beyond the Gators, the drop-off is beyond steep.
The rest of the division is a combined 11-23. Only Georgia (second in the East) has a winning conference record at 4-3.
The SEC West is more competitive than the East this season, but not by much. Alabama is 7-0 in the conference, LSU is 4-2 ... below these two teams, the combined record is 10-15. When the teams from the SEC go bowling, these records indicate, at least to me, a very down year for the SEC.
Do not be surprised to see the SEC only win three or four bowl games this season unless the pairings are very favorable.
How can I say that? Where are my SEC blue-yellow colors? I am looking at reality. Several of the teams that are bowl eligible simply are not that good ... even the top two teams look very beatable. While I have said there are no 'world beater' teams in the SEC (or the nation, for that matter) this season, one stat proves this point easily.
I receive several e-mails per week regarding my weekly picks ... yes, the requisite 'you don't know jack' emails are always clogging the inbox, but lately the same question keeps surfacing: how in the heck do you get from point A to point B when making your picks. Simple, I use several key stats, one of which is in plain sight: the Points Scored Column of the SEC standings.
For example, the Florida Gators have scored 221 points this season, while giving up 96. Alabama has similar stats of 182 points for and 64 against. Beyond the two top front runners, only two other SEC teams have out scored their opponents on the season (Ole Miss and LSU). That is it. The other eight conference teams have allowed more points than they have scored ... how weak does that make the league look? While I am not saying the SEC is the worst conference out there (and you should know by now, I am no team's homer), the stats indicate a very down season for the league as a whole. If an SEC team wins the BCS title and the entire league has had a down season ... we'll take it.
