| 09 August 2010
OK, I am going to preface this in simple terms so our friends in Dacula can understand what I am saying. I honestly believe these scenarios can happen. Will they? That is up to the variables among each individual team.
When we made our original "way too early to call" predictions" back on June 9th (who else has the cajones to be standing out on limbs that early in the year? Huh, huh, huh?), who would have predicted that Tennessee would lose two potential starters on the defensive line or have a paddy wagon full amount of players arrested while VIP'ing at a bar on the strip? You got it. No one. Injuries happen, arrests happen, over pampered players do not develop ... it happens.
So go ahead UGA fans, bring it ... I am barely moving your positioning ... if at all ... I don't want to hear the cat calls of "you're changing your picks" ... because honestly, I'm not ;) With that said let's get down to it. SEC West
I have literally gone back and forth on the West all summer. The West could easily be a dog fight and will come down to a handful of games. While many will scream personal bias, which they can promptly get over, these are honestly my picks. Right or wrong, I am willing to put them online.
#1 LSU Tigers (10-2)
This is a HUGE reach. LSU is the largest wildcard team in the West. To top it off, if Les Miles has another eight win season, he could be drummed out of Baton Rouge at the end of the season. There is a LOT riding on this season for Miles and his staff.
Offensively, we look for a vast improvement over last year's team. Last season, LSU could not run the ball and the passing game was a mixed bag. In fact, LSU's offensive production of 305 yards per game were the team's lowest in well over ten seasons. The total offensive points total was also the lowest since the 2002 season.
LSU's offensive keys for this season are very basic:
Run the ball first (must average 165 per game)
Jordan Jefferson must be able to stand in the pocket ... he has never recognized the pocket in the past
Eliminate offensive sacks; last year LSU surrendered 37 sacks ... mainly because Jefferson spent too much time free lancing instead of finding the pocket
Defensively surrender less than 300 yards per game. LSU was outgained in five games last season. John Chavis has had a full season to get his system in place. Most pundits do not see the improvement that will be coming on the defensive side of the ball this season ... be ready for it because it is coming.
The schedule is not as bad as it seems. @Florida, @Auburn, and @Arkansas are tough, but not 'give up' games by any stretch of the imagination.
Losses: Florida and Arkansas
If any of these four keys are missing from the equation, all bets are off and you will see Alabama repeat as SEC West champs. If two or more keys are missing, then you might see this team slide all the way to third in the West ... personally, I just do not see that happening because talent wise, this team is better than anyone else is willing to give them credit.
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide 10-2
Alabama enjoyed a near-mirror image season that the Tennessee Vols had in 1998. It took some breaks for the Tide to win the West last season. With several key position losses, and if the breaks do not go their way, Alabama is a bubble team this year between first and second in the West.
The Tide lost four defensive studs in the first two rounds of the NFL draft (Rolando McClain, Kareem Jackson, Javier Arenas, and Terrence Cody). Of that group, Cody is replaceable ... the others were extremely special players at their positions.
The schedule is easy. The schedule is the only component that is making me waffle on this team. San Jose State, @Duke, and Georgia State are three guaranteed wins. While Bama does host Penn State, Florida, and Auburn, they should be able to win two out of the three.
Offensively, the four returning starters are all SEC household names (McElroy, Ingram, Maze, and Julio Jones) ... outside of these four, people outside of the Crimson Tide family are going to have very little clue whom they are looking at. Like LSU, this offensive team will start with the O-Line and honestly, I think they are over hyped at this point. Bama had zero problems running the football last season, this year could be a different tale.
Defensively, there are eight returning starters from a team that only allowed 11.7 points per game last year. If Bama is to repeat as the West Champs, it will be due to the defense.
Losses: Florida (toss up; very winnable game for Bama) and LSU
#3 Auburn Tigers 9-3
Gene Chizik's staff is coming into their second season down on the Plains. This team was more balanced last season than many people realize (212 rushing, 220 passing) ... and that was without an SEC caliber quarterback. That changes this season.
Cameron Newton (before his legal difficulties) was the heir apparent to Tim Tebow. If you have managed to see him play at all, he is the real deal as long as he can keep his head screwed on straight. Many folks are expecting Mario Fannin to have a break-out season, but the running back to keep your eye is Onterio McCalebb. If McCalebb can stay away from the injury bug, he is a top shelf player. The offensive line is senior laden and could potentially be one of the best in the nation.
The defensive side of the ball holds too many questions for this team to realistically challenge for the West title. 27.5 points per game ... that is last season's average. While the offense is good, AU can not rely on the offense to simply outscore the opponent in every game without defensive help. This team averaged surrendering 374 yards per game last year ... definitely room for improvement this year. With seven returning starters, AU should show more consistency this year, but this team simply is not "there" yet, but are very close.
The schedule falls in the Tigers' favor with games against Arkansas State, ULM, and Chattanooga.
Losses: South Carolina (closer than you will think), LSU, Alabama
#4 Arkansas Razorbacks 8-4
Ryan Mallet is a hellatious quarterback in a video game college system ... we get that. We also get that the defense is not very good. Did Mallet make the correct decision by coming back for another season? Over all, yes he did. As long as he evades major injury, he could very well be the first pick taken in next year's NFL draft. Does his return correlate into wins for the Razorbacks?
Offensively, Arkansas should be able to duplicate last season's stat lines (427 yards per game, 296 passing) ... while the Razorbacks do have a solid running game, all eyes will be on Mallet.
Defensively, there are some questions. Nine returning starters should indicate depth, experience, etc ... this defense was horrible last year. No team in the SEC can give up 400 yards and 25 points per game and expect to win many games. While the defense will be improved over last year, the burning question is "how much" improvement will the fans see?
The schedule will give many fans a false sense of security early on (Tennessee Tech, ULM, @Georgia). The Razorbacks do catch Bama, Ole Miss, and LSU at home. Again, it will come down to the defense.
Losses: Alabama, Texas A&M (closer than expected), Auburn, LSU
#5 Mississippi State Bulldogs 6-6
Dan Mullen's staff is getting geared up for season #2 in Starkville. Unfortunately for them, only having four returning defensive starters is going to be a glaring weakness on a team that surrendered just under 27 points per game last year. You are looking at a "standard" MSU team: questions at quarterback, decent running backs, solid offensive line, questions marks on defense.
Losses: Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Houston, Florida, Alabama
#6 Ole Miss Rebels 6-6
I cringe putting the Rebels in this spot. I really do. Houston Nutt's track record has always been to win when he isn't supposed to .... lose when he is supposed to win. He is not expected win a lot of games this season ... and that concerns me.
Do not be blinded by the loss of Jevan Snead at quarterback, he was not that good. If Masoli comes in and steals the starting the quarterback position will be average at best ... if he is unable to get the starting nod, the quarterbacking on this team could be painful to watch.
Instead, Ole Miss fans need to be very concerned by the loss of Dexter McCluster. Those 1169 yards will be sorely missed.
Defensively, the Rebels were good last season and return eight starters. If the defense is left on the field as much as I believe they will be, this could be a long season. If the offense can show any life at all, this team will be better than expected.
The schedule is very favorable: Jacksonville St, @Tulane, Fresno St, Louisiana ... but the road games are going to be a task: @Bama, @Arkansas, @UT (close game), @LSU
Losses: Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State (whoa)
Let the flame fest begin, does not bother me in the least ... if you can pick them better (and can back your track record up), then click the contact link and we will put you to work.
