| 02 September 2010
Like many, of course we are thankful to see the season finally arrive. Too bad we have to muddle through week one's cup cake and creme schedule. Honestly, other than a couple of games, is anyone really looking forward to this weekend? At any rate, football on television IS football on television .
Right out of the gate is Southern Miss at South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are currently favored by 14 points and the over/under is 45 points. Look for this game to be closer than expected, especially early on.
We will all find out if the SC offensive line is for real. Steve Spurrier has long been labeled as a pass happy offensive coach, but many do not realize how much he actually likes to run the ball. The scary part? SC has gone with a zone blocking scheme ... on some teams zone blocking can and will work ... BUT, the offensive line must be filled with studs ... I just do not have a good feeling about this.
I agree with LOHD, in order to beat USM, the Gamecocks will need to be able to control the ball and the clock ... get the running game going and stick with it. South Carolina needs to average 140+ yards rushing per game. It really is that simple. For the first time under Spurrier, this team has the offensive talent to get the job done, does the coaching staff stick with it? Better yet, can Marcus Lattimore come in and make the impact that many believes him to be capable of?
On a side note, during Lou Holtz's last five seasons, the Gamecocks averaged 168 yards rushing per game ... under Spurrier? 113 yards per game.
Quarterback Stephen Garcia can not get this team beat. The Spurrier system is based on timing and for the past several years, the timing between the QB and the receivers has been non-existent. Garcia does have the smarts to step up into the pocket, but of the 37 sacks that SC surrendered last season, many were due to Garcia bailing from the pocket too early.
Garcia must be able to step up into the pocket, stand and deliver the ball on time and not be the one that is behind on the rhythm. If Garcia can not get the job done this season, Spurrier will go with true freshman Connor Shaw.
The Gamecocks had the 15th best defensive unit in the nation last season. Losing Eric Norwood will hurt, but the defense returns largely intact.
Face it, outside of the Steve Spurrier / Larry Fedora match-up (think Obi-wan versus Luke), this is still Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles always play scrappy defense and this game will be no different.
Offensively, Southern Miss has a "Sunday" player in wide receiver DeAndre Brown ... SC will shut Brown down ... they must. This will leave the Golden Eagles with much fewer options and will ultimately be one of the key differences in the game. If Brown gets loose and snags enough balls to put him over the 100-115 yard receiving mark, this game could be sponsored by Rolaids for SC fans ...
I am not in love with the USM defense, although their front seven does play well. Face it, this was last season's 80th ranked defense ... that puts them where? Somewhere between Tulsa and Vanderbilt? Do the math on that one.
South Carolina can NOT shoot themselves in the foot with turn overs or sacks. Garcia must play within the system. The running game (for the first time under Spurrier) MUST click. Defensively, limit the run while shutting down ONE wide receiver ... this is not asking too much from an SEC team.
South Carolina has averaged a winning margin of 23-7 in their last six opening games ... this includes two shut outs and one game in which they gave up three points. Many bookies are quietly expecting the Gamecocks to NOT cover the spread in this game.
In my opinion, this game is not much different than many previous opening games for the Cocks. I am going against the grain and look for South Carolina to not only win, but to cover the spread of 14 points ... barely.
Keep in mind that South Carolina is 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games ... and while it IS a new season, this is the season that the Gamecocks have been looking for.
South Carolina 27
Southern Miss 13
