| 08 January 2010
The Alabama Crimson Tide are your 2009 BCS National Champions ... like anyone believed that Texas truly had a chance. Seriously, the Longhorns? Why not Boise State? The way the National Title Game completed, it may as well been Long Beach State because the end result would not have been any different.
I realize that writing this the day after the game is looking in the rear view mirror; however, I had 'real world' items that took all of my available time ... my friends in the Knoxville market have heard me personally spouting the flowery words of why Bama would win the game by 18 points ... didn't miss it by much.
At the same time, my friends have also heard my rumblings regarding why we need a playoff in college football. It is past time. Like the previous popularity contest that was the AP Poll, the BCS has become another popularity contest. It is time for a change.
Our friends at PlayOffPAC.org have been stating the same things.
We need to face the facts, yes it is past time. The current system is not broken, it never worked. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. I could spend the next hour going down the Boise State-shoulda-coulda-woulda-road, but the PAC does a better job than I ever could on that one.
Do not get me wrong, Alabama is your national title winner for 2009. There is no taking that away from them. Bama would have likely beaten anyone that they played, that is not the issue at hand. The issue at hand is the fact that Texas did not belong and the final score tells you that.
We have already witnessed a heck of a run by the SEC this decade, but guess what? The conference is only beginning. 2009 was a down year for the SEC ... take one look at the total number of 7-5 teams and you will see it. With the ESPN/CBS contract firmly in place, we are all getting ready to see the SEC dominate the January Bowl Schedule, as well as the BCS Title game for some time to come.
2010 will bring an Alabama team that looks very similar to this season's team. On top of that, LSU will be stronger. Georgia will be ready to make some noise provided they can find a defensive coordinator and retain Rodney Garner. These three teams will all have a shot at playing in January of 2011.
Once you clear the obvious three teams, what is left?
SEC East: Florida will be in turmoil over the Urban Meyer saga until it is solved. UF could potentially get killed in recruiting because of the waffling. If Meyer had simply quit, it would have been bad enough. Announcing that he will instead take a leave of absence has hurt the team more than quitting ever would have. At the same time, the Gators have a roster of talented players ... how will this team react to the goings on around them? Chances are more likely that the team plays poorly because of it.
Tennessee will be down. Lane Kiffin's second year will include replacing key defensive players (which could actually be easier than many UT fans think). Offensively, the Vols will have some bleak spots as Bryce Brown will be the primary weapon in an offense with an unproven quarterback. The Vols also must replace most of their offensive line ... replacing walk-ons should not prove difficult. The Vols are my SEC East darkhorse team for next season.
Georgia was mentioned above. Mark Richt is a solid coach. Firing the vast majority of his defensive staff is a move of desperation. If Richt does not get this team turned around next season, the fan discontentment will be extremely loud. UGA fans want a championship, but guess what? Not gonna happen any time soon.
South Carolina could win the East by default. Yes, you read that correctly. If the Gators and Vols stumble, the Gamecocks could be looking at their first trip to the SEC Championship Game in 2010. Offensively, this team will be Steve Spurrier's best since he arrived in Columbia. All of the question marks will be on the defense.
Vandy and Kentucky will be fighting for the basement. Look for Vandy to work Warren Norman like a borrowed mule while struggling to play defense for the first time in years. If Larry Smith is the starting quarterback for the Commodores, then all bets are off. Smith is not an SEC caliber quarterback.
The Kentucky Wildcats will be a team in transition. As we told everyone back during SEC Media Days, Kentucky would likely be coach-less going into 2010. While it is still up in the air, Kentucky does not have the weapons to win more than seven games.
Here is how my too-early-to-mention SEC East looks for next season:
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Florida Gators/Tennessee Vols
- Kentucky Wildcats
- Vandy Commodores
The SEC West could face a down year once you get past Alabama and LSU.
Look for Alabama to be stacked once again and making a run for a title again. Yes, this Tide team is that good.
LSU is the wildcard. I do not believe that Tigers will be good enough to challenge any elite teams ... and that is primarily due to coaching, not the players on the field. Any time the opposing team looks across the field and sees John Chavis manning the defense, the opponent will always have a chance to win the game.
Offensively, the Tigers must find a running game. If LSU can do this one, simple thing, this team will play another January bowl game.
Another Tiger team to keep your eye on will be the Auburn Tigers. AU surprised many of the analysts out there (not us, if you were reading our blog, then you knew we had them 3rd in the West last season) and provided McCaleb stays healthy, will make a run next year.
Arkansas' chances hinge on the quarterback. Then again, in any Bobby Petrino offense, the quarterback is always the lynch pin. I will be shocked to see Ryan Mallet standing on the Razorbacks sideline next season. Why would he? While an earlier article was being absolutely blasted on the Rivals.com Arkansas message board, I stand by my previous statements: Mallet has nothing else to prove. What would keep him at Arkansas another year?
Ole Miss will be a better passing team without Jevan Snead. Yes, you read that correctly. Snead is a capable quarterback, but was not the 'be all, end all' for the Rebels this season. Snead tended to make poor decisions and made another poor decision by deciding to turn pro. Ole Miss' largest loss will be Dexter McCluster, make no mistake about that one. Petrino's staff will be hard pressed to find a replacement for McCluster ... just ask the Gators how easy it was to replace Percy Harvin. Defensively, the Rebels will likely lose a LOT.
Ole Miss will be the West wild card team for next season, not Auburn.
Mississippi State will be the team that will end several team's runs next year. Dan Mullen is a solid coach and should begin receiving 'his type of players' with this next recruiting class. This Bulldogs team will be the most blue collared team in the league. MSU should be bowl eligible in 2010.
Our SEC West Outlook for 2010 looks like this:
- Alabama
- LSU
- Auburn
- Ole Miss
- Arkansas
- Mississippi State
